Spatial-temporal variations of ecological vulnerability in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China

As the largest inland river basin of China, Tarim River Basin (TRB), known for its various natural resources and fragile environment, has an increased risk ecological crisis due to intensive exploitation utilization water land resources. Since Ecological Water Diversion Project (EWDP), which was implemented in 2001 save endangered desert vegetation, there been growing evidence improvement local regions, but few studies have performed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment whole TRB. This study established evaluation framework integrating analytic hierarchy process (AHP) entropy method estimate TRB covering climatic, ecological, socioeconomic indicators during 2000–2017. Based on geographical detector model, importance ten driving factors spatial-temporal variations explored. The results showed that ecosystem fragile, with more than half area (57.27%) dominated by very heavy grades vulnerability, 28.40% had potential light vulnerability. grade distributed northern regions (Aksu Weigan catchments) western (Kashgar Yarkant catchments), while located southern (Kunlun Mountains Qarqan Mainstream catchment. ecosystems were less vulnerable those eastern regions. From 2000 2017, overall areas great 46.11%, degradation decreased 9.64%. vegetation cover evapotranspiration (PET) obvious factors, explaining 57.56% 21.55% changes across TRB, respectively. In terms changes, spatial differences observed upper, middle, lower reaches different hydrothermal conditions. alpine source region precipitation temperature, meadow Kaidu catchment Middle Tianshan experienced associated overgrazing drought. improved agricultural management technologies positive effects farmland improvement, oasis-desert ecotones decreasing trend as result cropland reclamation riparian greatly implementation EWDP, active tens years. These provide knowledge about processes mechanisms help develop environmental restoration measures based each sub-catchment.